{"id":1073652,"date":"2024-07-12T00:43:00","date_gmt":"2024-07-12T07:43:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/newed.any0.dpdns.org\/en-us\/research\/?post_type=msr-blog-post&#038;p=1073652"},"modified":"2024-09-25T04:22:30","modified_gmt":"2024-09-25T11:22:30","slug":"probts","status":"publish","type":"msr-blog-post","link":"https:\/\/newed.any0.dpdns.org\/en-us\/research\/articles\/probts\/","title":{"rendered":"ProbTS\uff1a\u65f6\u95f4\u5e8f\u5217\u9884\u6d4b\u7684\u7edf\u4e00\u8bc4\u6d4b\u6846\u67b6"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p><em>\u4f5c\u8005\uff1a\u673a\u5668\u5b66\u4e60\u7ec4<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u7f16\u8005\u6309\uff1a\u5982\u4eca\uff0c\u65f6\u95f4\u5e8f\u5217\u9884\u6d4b\u5728\u5065\u5eb7\u3001\u80fd\u6e90\u3001\u5546\u4e1a\u3001\u6c14\u5019\u7b49\u591a\u4e2a\u884c\u4e1a\u53d1\u6325\u7740\u81f3\u5173\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u4f5c\u7528\u3002\u5b83\u4e0d\u4ec5\u5f71\u54cd\u7740\u76f8\u5173\u8d44\u6e90\u7684\u5206\u914d\u548c\u8c03\u5ea6\uff0c\u8fd8\u5f71\u54cd\u7740\u884c\u4e1a\u7684\u7ba1\u7406\u548c\u8fd0\u8425\u51b3\u7b56\u3002\u4f46\u662f\u73b0\u6709\u7684\u65f6\u95f4\u5e8f\u5217\u9884\u6d4b\u65b9\u6cd5\u901a\u5e38\u7f3a\u4e4f\u5bf9\u57fa\u7840\u9884\u6d4b\u9700\u6c42\u7684\u5168\u9762\u8003\u8651\uff0c\u65e0\u8bba\u662f\u7ecf\u5178\u7684\u65f6\u5e8f\u9884\u6d4b\u6a21\u578b\u8fd8\u662f\u8fd1\u671f\u6d8c\u73b0\u7684\u65f6\u5e8f\u57fa\u7840\u6a21\u578b\uff0c\u90fd\u5b58\u5728\u65b9\u6cd5\u8bbe\u8ba1\u4e0a\u7684\u201c\u504f\u89c1\u201d\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u4e3a\u6b64\uff0c\u5fae\u8f6f\u4e9a\u6d32\u7814\u7a76\u9662\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u5458\u4eec\u8054\u5408\u9999\u6e2f\u79d1\u6280\u5927\u5b66\uff08\u5e7f\u5dde\uff09\u548c\u6e05\u534e\u5927\u5b66\u7684\u79d1\u7814\u4eba\u5458\u5408\u4f5c\u5f00\u53d1\u4e86 ProbTS \u6846\u67b6\uff0c\u5e0c\u671b\u5bf9\u73b0\u6709\u65f6\u5e8f\u9884\u6d4b\u6a21\u578b\u8fdb\u884c\u7edf\u4e00\u7684\u57fa\u51c6\u8bc4\u6d4b\u3002\u5728 ProbTS \u6846\u67b6\u4e0b\uff0c\u7814\u7a76\u5458\u4eec\u901a\u8fc7\u5728\u70b9\u4f30\u8ba1\/\u5206\u5e03\u4f30\u8ba1\u3001\u957f\u7a0b\/\u77ed\u7a0b\u3001\u81ea\u56de\u5f52\/\u975e\u81ea\u56de\u5f52\u7b49\u591a\u7ef4\u5ea6\u4e0a\u7684\u9884\u6d4b\u6548\u679c\u6bd4\u8f83\uff0c\u63ed\u793a\u4e86\u5404\u6a21\u578b\u5728\u5173\u952e\u65b9\u6cd5\u8bba\u4e0a\u7684\u201c\u6289\u62e9\u201d\u96be\u9898\u548c\u5dee\u5f02\uff0c\u5e76\u5bf9\u5404\u6a21\u578b\u8fdb\u884c\u4e86\u5168\u9762\u7684\u4f18\u52a3\u52bf\u8fa8\u6790\u3002ProbTS \u7684\u5206\u6790\u7ed3\u679c\u53ef\u4ee5\u5e2e\u52a9\u4e1a\u754c\u53cd\u601d\u5f53\u524d\u65f6\u95f4\u5e8f\u5217\u9884\u6d4b\u6a21\u578b\u5728\u5e95\u5c42\u65b9\u6cd5\u8bba\u4e0a\u906d\u9047\u7684\u6311\u6218\uff0c\u66f4\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u662f\u4e3a\u672a\u6765\u9884\u6d4b\u6a21\u578b\u7684\u53d1\u5c55\u68b3\u7406\u51fa\u4e86\u66f4\u52a0\u6e05\u6670\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u65b9\u5411\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<p>\u65f6\u95f4\u5e8f\u5217\u9884\u6d4b\uff08Time-series Forecasting\uff09\u5bf9\u4f17\u591a\u884c\u4e1a\u90fd\u81f3\u5173\u91cd\u8981\uff0c\u5305\u62ec\u5065\u5eb7\u3001\u80fd\u6e90\u3001\u5546\u4e1a\u3001\u6c14\u5019\u7b49\u3002\u5728\u4e0d\u540c\u9884\u6d4b\u957f\u5ea6\u4e0a\u7684\u51c6\u786e\u6027\uff0c\u5bf9\u8fd9\u4e9b\u9886\u57df\u4e2d\u670d\u52a1\u77ed\u671f\u548c\u957f\u671f\u7684\u89c4\u5212\u548c\u51b3\u7b56\u9700\u6c42\u6765\u8bf4\u6781\u5176\u91cd\u8981\u3002\u4f8b\u5982\uff0c\u5728\u75ab\u60c5\u7206\u53d1\u8fd9\u79cd\u516c\u5171\u536b\u751f\u7684\u7d27\u6025\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\uff0c\u9884\u6d4b\u4e00\u5230\u56db\u5468\u5185\u7684\u611f\u67d3\u75c5\u4f8b\u548c\u6b7b\u4ea1\u4eba\u6570\u5bf9\u4e8e\u6709\u6548\u5206\u914d\u533b\u7597\u548c\u793e\u4f1a\u8d44\u6e90\u975e\u5e38\u91cd\u8981\u3002\u5728\u80fd\u6e90\u9886\u57df\uff0c\u51c6\u786e\u9884\u6d4b\u6bcf\u5c0f\u65f6\u3001\u6bcf\u5929\u3001\u6bcf\u5468\u751a\u81f3\u6bcf\u6708\u7684\u7535\u529b\u9700\u6c42\u4e5f\u5bf9\u7535\u7f51\u7ba1\u7406\u548c\u53ef\u518d\u751f\u80fd\u6e90\u8c03\u5ea6\u5341\u5206\u5173\u952e\u3002\u540c\u6837\uff0c\u5728\u7269\u6d41\u884c\u4e1a\uff0c\u51c6\u786e\u9884\u6d4b\u77ed\u671f\u548c\u957f\u671f\u7684\u8d27\u7269\u91cf\u80fd\u6709\u6548\u5e2e\u52a9\u4f01\u4e1a\u5408\u7406\u5b89\u6392\u8fd0\u8f93\u8def\u7ebf\u4ee5\u53ca\u9ad8\u6548\u7ba1\u7406\u4f9b\u5e94\u94fe\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u9664\u4e86\u6db5\u76d6\u5404\u79cd\u9884\u6d4b\u957f\u5ea6\uff0c\u9762\u5411\u89c4\u5212\u548c\u51b3\u7b56\u7684\u7cbe\u51c6\u9884\u6d4b\u4e0d\u4ec5\u8981\u8003\u8651\u5230\u70b9\u4f30\u8ba1\uff08Point Estimation\uff09\uff0c\u66f4\u8981\u652f\u6301\u5206\u5e03\u4f30\u8ba1\uff08Distribution Estimation\uff09\uff0c\u4ee5\u8861\u91cf\u4f30\u8ba1\u7684\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u3002\u56e0\u4e3a\u671f\u671b\u4e0b\u7684\u9884\u6d4b\u503c\u53ca\u5176\u76f8\u5173\u7684\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u53ef\u4ee5\u4e3a\u968f\u540e\u7684\u89c4\u5212\u548c\u4f18\u5316\u63d0\u4f9b\u4e00\u4e2a\u5168\u9762\u7684\u89c6\u89d2\u6765\u5f15\u5bfc\u66f4\u597d\u7684\u51b3\u7b56\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u9274\u4e8e\u4e0d\u540c\u9884\u6d4b\u957f\u5ea6\u5bf9\u70b9\u9884\u6d4b\u548c\u5206\u5e03\u9884\u6d4b\u7684\u8feb\u5207\u9700\u6c42\uff0c\u6765\u81ea\u5fae\u8f6f\u4e9a\u6d32\u7814\u7a76\u9662\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u5458\u4eec\u5bf9\u73b0\u6709\u4e0d\u540c\u7814\u7a76\u9886\u57df\u5f00\u53d1\u7684\u6700\u5148\u8fdb\u7684\u6a21\u578b\u8fdb\u884c\u4e86\u56de\u987e\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e9b\u6a21\u578b\u5305\u62ec\uff1a<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>\u7ecf\u5178\u65f6\u95f4\u5e8f\u5217\u6a21\u578b\uff1a\u8fd9\u4e9b\u6a21\u578b\u901a\u5e38\u9700\u8981\u5728\u6bcf\u4e2a\u6570\u636e\u96c6\u4e0a\u4ece\u5934\u5f00\u59cb\u8bad\u7ec3\uff0c\u5305\u62ec\u4e13\u95e8\u7528\u4e8e\u957f\u7a0b\u70b9\u9884\u6d4b\uff08\u4f8b\u5982\uff0cPatchTST\u3001iTransformer\uff09\u4ee5\u53ca\u4e13\u6ce8\u4e8e\u77ed\u7a0b\u5206\u5e03\u9884\u6d4b\u7684\u65b9\u6cd5\uff08\u4f8b\u5982\uff0cCSDI\u3001TimeGrad\uff09\u3002<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u8fd1\u671f\u7684\u65f6\u95f4\u5e8f\u5217\u57fa\u7840\u6a21\u578b\uff1a\u8fd9\u4e9b\u6a21\u578b\u6d89\u53ca\u5728\u5e7f\u6cdb\u7684\u65f6\u95f4\u5e8f\u5217\u6570\u636e\u96c6\u4e0a\u8fdb\u884c\u901a\u7528\u9884\u8bad\u7ec3\uff0c\u5305\u62ec\u7531\u5de5\u4e1a\u5b9e\u9a8c\u5ba4\uff08\u4f8b\u5982\uff0cTimesFM\u3001MOIRAI\u3001Chronos\uff09\u548c\u5b66\u672f\u673a\u6784\uff08\u4f8b\u5982\uff0cTimer\u3001UniTS\uff09\u5f00\u53d1\u7684\u65b9\u6cd5\u3002<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>\u7814\u7a76\u5458\u4eec\u53d1\u73b0\uff0c\u5c3d\u7ba1\u76ee\u524d\u7684\u9884\u6d4b\u6a21\u578b\u6709\u7740\u53ef\u89c2\u7684\u8fdb\u5c55\uff0c\u4f46\u73b0\u6709\u7684\u65b9\u6cd5\u901a\u5e38\u7f3a\u4e4f\u5bf9\u57fa\u7840\u9884\u6d4b\u9700\u6c42\u7684\u5168\u9762\u8003\u8651\u3002\u8fd9\u79cd\u5c40\u9650\u6027\u5c06\u5bfc\u81f4\u73b0\u6709\u6a21\u578b\u65b9\u6cd5\u5728\u8bbe\u8ba1\u4e0a\u5b58\u5728\u201c\u504f\u89c1\u201d\uff0c\u800c\u4e14\u8fd9\u4e9b\u6a21\u578b\u80fd\u529b\u5c1a\u672a\u5728\u66f4\u5e7f\u6cdb\u7684\u9884\u6d4b\u573a\u666f\u4e2d\u5f97\u5230\u9a8c\u8bc1\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u57fa\u4e8e\u6b64\uff0c<strong>\u7814\u7a76\u5458\u4eec\u5f00\u53d1\u4e86 ProbTS \u6846\u67b6\u3002ProbTS \u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u7edf\u4e00\u7684\u57fa\u51c6\u8bc4\u6d4b\u6846\u67b6\uff0c\u65e8\u5728\u8bc4\u4f30\u5f53\u524d\u65b9\u6cd5\u5728\u6ee1\u8db3\u57fa\u672c\u9884\u6d4b\u9700\u6c42\u65b9\u9762\u7684\u8868\u73b0\u3002<\/strong>\u7814\u7a76\u5458\u4eec\u901a\u8fc7 ProbTS \u5de5\u5177\uff0c\u4e0d\u4ec5\u5bf9\u9884\u6d4b\u7814\u7a76\u7684\u5173\u952e\u65b9\u6cd5\u8bba\u5dee\u5f02\u8fdb\u884c\u4e86\u63a2\u8ba8\uff0c\u8fd8\u5bf9\u5404\u7c7b\u65f6\u95f4\u5e8f\u5217\u9884\u6d4b\u7684\u7ecf\u5178\u6a21\u578b\u548c\u57fa\u7840\u6a21\u578b\u8fdb\u884c\u4e86\u8bc4\u6d4b\uff0c\u63ed\u793a\u4e86\u73b0\u6709\u65f6\u95f4\u5e8f\u5217\u9884\u6d4b\u7814\u7a76\u4e2d\u5b58\u5728\u7684\u95ee\u9898\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u5404\u6a21\u578b\u7684\u4f18\u52a3\u52bf\u6240\u5728\uff0c\u8fdb\u800c\u5bf9\u8be5\u9886\u57df\u672a\u6765\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u65b9\u5411\u8fdb\u884c\u4e86\u68b3\u7406\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>ProbTS: Benchmarking Point and Distributional Forecasting across Diverse Prediction Horizons<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u8bba\u6587\u94fe\u63a5\uff1a<a class=\"msr-external-link glyph-append glyph-append-open-in-new-tab glyph-append-xsmall\" href=\"https:\/\/arxiv.org\/abs\/2310.07446v4\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">https:\/\/arxiv.org\/abs\/2310.07446v4<span class=\"sr-only\"> (opens in new tab)<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>GitHub\u94fe\u63a5\uff1a<a class=\"msr-external-link glyph-append glyph-append-open-in-new-tab glyph-append-xsmall\" href=\"https:\/\/github.com\/microsoft\/ProbTS\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">https:\/\/github.com\/microsoft\/ProbTS<span class=\"sr-only\"> (opens in new tab)<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"\u8303\u5f0f\u5dee\u5f02-\u65f6\u95f4\u5e8f\u5217\u9884\u6d4b\u7684\u65b9\u6cd5\u8bba\u8fa8\u6790\">\u8303\u5f0f\u5dee\u5f02\uff1a\u65f6\u95f4\u5e8f\u5217\u9884\u6d4b\u7684\u65b9\u6cd5\u8bba\u8fa8\u6790<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>\u7814\u7a76\u5458\u4eec\u901a\u8fc7 ProbTS \u8fdb\u884c\u7684\u57fa\u51c6\u7814\u7a76\u53d1\u73b0\uff0c<strong>\u76ee\u524d\u7684\u65f6\u95f4\u5e8f\u5217\u9884\u6d4b\u5173\u952e\u65b9\u6cd5\u8bba\u5b58\u5728\u4e24\u65b9\u9762\u7684\u5dee\u5f02\u2014\u2014\u70b9\u4f30\u8ba1\u548c\u5206\u5e03\u4f30\u8ba1\u7684\u9884\u6d4b\u8303\u5f0f\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u591a\u6b65\u9884\u6d4b\u7684\u89e3\u7801\u65b9\u6848\u3002<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u70b9\u4f30\u8ba1\u548c\u5206\u5e03\u4f30\u8ba1\u7684\u9884\u6d4b\u8303\u5f0f\uff1a<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>\u70b9\u9884\u6d4b\uff1a\u53ea\u652f\u6301\u70b9\u9884\u6d4b\u7684\u65b9\u6cd5\uff0c\u63d0\u4f9b\u9884\u671f\u4f30\u8ba1\u503c\u800c\u4e0d\u8fdb\u884c\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u91cf\u5316\u3002<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u9884\u5b9a\u4e49\u7684\u5206\u5e03\u51fd\u6570\u9884\u6d4b\u5934\uff1a\u4f7f\u7528\u9884\u5b9a\u4e49\u7684\u5206\u5e03\u51fd\u6570\u9884\u6d4b\u5934\u751f\u6210\u5206\u5e03\u9884\u6d4b\u7684\u65b9\u6cd5\uff0c\u63d0\u4f9b\u4e86\u4e00\u5b9a\u7684\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u4f30\u8ba1\uff0c\u4f46\u7f3a\u4e4f\u5bf9\u590d\u6742\u6570\u636e\u5206\u5e03\u7684\u5efa\u6a21\u80fd\u529b\u3002<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u795e\u7ecf\u5206\u5e03\u4f30\u8ba1\u6a21\u5757\uff1a\u91c7\u7528\u57fa\u4e8e\u795e\u7ecf\u7f51\u7edc\u7684\u6a21\u5757\u6765\u4f30\u8ba1\u6570\u636e\u5206\u5e03\uff0c\u5141\u8bb8\u66f4\u7075\u6d3b\u4e14\u53ef\u80fd\u66f4\u51c6\u786e\u7684\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u91cf\u5316\u3002<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u591a\u6b65\u9884\u6d4b\u8f93\u51fa\u7684\u89e3\u7801\u65b9\u6848\uff1a<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>\u81ea\u56de\u5f52\uff08Autoregressive\uff0c\u7b80\u79f0 AR\uff09\u65b9\u6cd5\uff1a\u8fd9\u4e9b\u65b9\u6cd5\u9010\u6b65\u751f\u6210\u9884\u6d4b\uff0c\u4f7f\u7528\u5148\u524d\u7684\u9884\u6d4b\u4f5c\u4e3a\u672a\u6765\u65f6\u95f4\u6b65\u7684\u8f93\u5165\uff0c\u9002\u7528\u4e8e\u5e8f\u5217\u4f9d\u8d56\u6027\u81f3\u5173\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u573a\u666f\u3002<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u975e\u81ea\u56de\u5f52\uff08Non-autoregressive\uff0c\u7b80\u79f0 NAR\uff09\u65b9\u6cd5\uff1a\u8fd9\u4e9b\u65b9\u6cd5\u540c\u65f6\u4e3a\u6240\u6709\u65f6\u95f4\u6b65\u751f\u6210\u9884\u6d4b\uff0c\u63d0\u4f9b\u66f4\u5feb\u7684\u9884\u6d4b\u901f\u5ea6\uff0c\u5e76\u4e14\u53ef\u80fd\u5728\u957f\u7a0b\u9884\u6d4b\u4e2d\u8868\u73b0\u66f4\u597d\u3002<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image aligncenter size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1431\" height=\"534\" src=\"https:\/\/newed.any0.dpdns.org\/en-us\/research\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/probts-1.png\" alt=\"ProbTS - flow diagram\" class=\"wp-image-1073658\" srcset=\"https:\/\/newed.any0.dpdns.org\/en-us\/research\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/probts-1.png 1431w, https:\/\/newed.any0.dpdns.org\/en-us\/research\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/probts-1-300x112.png 300w, https:\/\/newed.any0.dpdns.org\/en-us\/research\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/probts-1-1024x382.png 1024w, https:\/\/newed.any0.dpdns.org\/en-us\/research\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/probts-1-768x287.png 768w, https:\/\/newed.any0.dpdns.org\/en-us\/research\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/probts-1-240x90.png 240w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1431px) 100vw, 1431px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">\u56fe1\uff1aProbTS \u6982\u89c8\uff0c\u5c55\u793a\u4e86\u5176\u5728\u4e0d\u540c\u9884\u6d4b\u573a\u666f\u4e2d\u7684\u8986\u76d6\u8303\u56f4\uff0c\u5305\u62ec\u4e0d\u540c\u7814\u7a76\u5206\u652f\u4e2d\u5f00\u53d1\u7684\u5178\u578b\u6a21\u578b\u548c\u5168\u9762\u7684\u8bc4\u4f30\u6307\u6807\u3002<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>\u5728 ProbTS \u6846\u67b6\u4e0b\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u7ed3\u679c\u663e\u793a\uff1a\u9996\u5148\uff0c\u5728\u957f\u7a0b\u53ca\u77ed\u7a0b\u9884\u6d4b\u4e2d\uff0c\u957f\u7a0b\u70b9\u9884\u6d4b\u7684\u65b9\u6cd5\u56e0\u5b9a\u5236\u5316\u7684\u795e\u7ecf\u67b6\u6784\u5728\u957f\u7a0b\u573a\u666f\u4e2d\u8868\u73b0\u51fa\u8272\uff0c\u4f46\u5728\u77ed\u7a0b\u6848\u4f8b\u548c\u590d\u6742\u6570\u636e\u5206\u5e03\u4e2d\u8868\u73b0\u4e0d\u4f73\uff0c\u5e76\u4e14\u56e0\u4e3a\u7f3a\u4e4f\u5bf9\u9884\u6d4b\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u7684\u91cf\u5316\u8bc4\u4f30\uff0c\u5bfc\u81f4\u5176\u4e0e\u6982\u7387\u6a21\u578b\u76f8\u6bd4\u5728\u5e94\u5bf9\u590d\u6742\u6570\u636e\u5206\u5e03\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\u5b58\u5728\u663e\u8457\u7684\u6027\u80fd\u5dee\u8ddd\u3002\u800c\u77ed\u7a0b\u6982\u7387\u9884\u6d4b\u65b9\u6cd5\u4ec5\u5728\u77ed\u7a0b\u5206\u5e03\u9884\u6d4b\u65b9\u9762\u8868\u73b0\u4e13\u4e1a\uff0c\u4f46\u5728\u957f\u7a0b\u9884\u6d4b\u573a\u666f\u4e2d\u5c31\u4f1a\u51fa\u73b0\u6027\u80fd\u4e0b\u964d\u4ee5\u53ca\u8ba1\u7b97\u6548\u7387\u7684\u95ee\u9898\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u5176\u6b21\uff0c\u9488\u5bf9\u89e3\u7801\u5668\u8bbe\u8ba1\uff0c\u957f\u7a0b\u70b9\u9884\u6d4b\u6a21\u578b\u4e3b\u8981\u91c7\u7528\u975e\u81ea\u56de\u5f52\u89e3\u7801\uff0c\u800c\u5728\u77ed\u7a0b\u6982\u7387\u9884\u6d4b\u6a21\u578b\u8bbe\u8ba1\u4e2d\u5219\u6ca1\u6709\u51fa\u73b0\u8fd9\u79cd\u504f\u5411\u6027\u3002\u5e76\u4e14\uff0c\u5c3d\u7ba1\u81ea\u56de\u5f52\u89e3\u7801\u5728\u957f\u7a0b\u9884\u6d4b\u4e2d\u5bb9\u6613\u53d7\u5230\u8bef\u5dee\u7d2f\u79ef\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\uff0c\u4f46\u5728\u5177\u6709\u5f3a\u5468\u671f\u6027\u6a21\u5f0f\u7684\u573a\u666f\u4e0b\u53ef\u80fd\u8868\u73b0\u66f4\u597d\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u6700\u540e\uff0c\u5728\u5f53\u524d\u6d8c\u73b0\u7684\u65f6\u95f4\u5e8f\u5217\u57fa\u7840\u6a21\u578b\u4e2d\uff0c\u90e8\u5206\u91c7\u7528\u81ea\u56de\u5f52\u89e3\u7801\u7684\u57fa\u7840\u6a21\u578b\u5728\u957f\u7a0b\u9884\u6d4b\u4e2d\u540c\u6837\u9762\u4e34\u8bef\u5dee\u7d2f\u79ef\u7684\u6311\u6218\uff0c\u4e14\u5c1a\u672a\u6709\u8f83\u597d\u7684\u5e94\u5bf9\u63aa\u65bd\u3002\u540c\u65f6\uff0c\u5f53\u524d\u57fa\u7840\u6a21\u578b\u5bf9\u5206\u5e03\u9884\u6d4b\u7684\u652f\u6301\u6709\u9650\uff0c\u7a81\u663e\u4e86\u63d0\u5347\u590d\u6742\u6570\u636e\u5206\u5e03\u5efa\u6a21\u80fd\u529b\u7684\u9700\u6c42\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"\u7ecf\u5178\u65f6\u95f4\u5e8f\u5217\u6a21\u578b\u7684\u8bc4\u6d4b\u7ed3\u679c\u4e0e\u5206\u6790\">\u7ecf\u5178\u65f6\u95f4\u5e8f\u5217\u6a21\u578b\u7684\u8bc4\u6d4b\u7ed3\u679c\u4e0e\u5206\u6790<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>\u7814\u7a76\u5458\u4eec\u4f7f\u7528 ProbTS \u6846\u67b6\u5bf9\u5e7f\u6cdb\u7684\u9884\u6d4b\u573a\u666f\u4e2d\u7684\u5404\u79cd\u7ecf\u5178\u65f6\u95f4\u5e8f\u5217\u6a21\u578b\u8fdb\u884c\u4e86\u57fa\u51c6\u8bc4\u6d4b\uff0c\u6db5\u76d6\u77ed\u7a0b\u548c\u957f\u7a0b\u9884\u6d4b\u3002\u5177\u4f53\u8bc4\u6d4b\u6307\u6807\u5305\u62ec\u70b9\u9884\u6d4b\u6307\u6807 NMAE (Normalized Mean Absolute Error) \u548c\u5206\u5e03\u9884\u6d4b\u6307\u6807 CRPS (Continuous Ranked Probability Score)\u3002\u6b64\u5916\uff0c\u7814\u7a76\u5458\u4eec\u8fd8\u901a\u8fc7\u8ba1\u7b97\u4e00\u79cd\u975e\u9ad8\u65af\u6027\u7684\u8bc4\u5206\uff0c\u91cf\u5316\u4e86\u6bcf\u4e2a\u9884\u6d4b\u573a\u666f\u4e2d\u6570\u636e\u5206\u5e03\u7684\u590d\u6742\u6027\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u6839\u636e ProbTS \u7684\u8bc4\u6d4b\u7ed3\u679c\uff0c\u7814\u7a76\u5458\u4eec\u53d1\u73b0\uff1a<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>\u957f\u7a0b\u70b9\u9884\u6d4b\u6a21\u578b\u7684\u5c40\u9650\u6027<\/strong>\uff1a\u9488\u5bf9\u957f\u7a0b\u70b9\u9884\u6d4b\u6240\u8bbe\u8ba1\u7684\u65f6\u95f4\u5e8f\u5217\u795e\u7ecf\u67b6\u6784\uff0c\u5728\u957f\u7a0b\u573a\u666f\u4e2d\u8868\u73b0\u51fa\u8272\uff0c\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u5b83\u4eec\u5728\u77ed\u7a0b\u9884\u6d4b\u4efb\u52a1\u4e2d\u7684\u67b6\u6784\u4f18\u52bf\u663e\u8457\u964d\u4f4e\uff08\u89c1\u56fe2(a)\u548c2(c)\uff09\u3002\u800c\u4e14\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e9b\u6a21\u578b\u65e0\u6cd5\u8861\u91cf\u9884\u6d4b\u7684\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\uff0c\u5bfc\u81f4\u5176\u4e0e\u6982\u7387\u6a21\u578b\u76f8\u6bd4\u5728\u5206\u5e03\u9884\u6d4b\u4e0a\u5b58\u5728\u66f4\u5927\u7684\u6027\u80fd\u5dee\u8ddd\u3002\u8fd9\u4e00\u5dee\u8ddd\u5728\u6570\u636e\u5206\u5e03\u590d\u6742\u65f6\u4f1a\u66f4\u52a0\u663e\u8457\uff08\u89c1\u56fe2(c)\u548c2(d)\uff09\u3002<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>\u77ed\u7a0b\u6982\u7387\u9884\u6d4b\u6a21\u578b\u7684\u5f31\u70b9<\/strong>\uff1a\u5f53\u524d\u7684\u6982\u7387\u9884\u6d4b\u6a21\u578b\u867d\u7136\u5728\u77ed\u7a0b\u5206\u5e03\u9884\u6d4b\u65b9\u9762\u8868\u73b0\u51fa\u8272\uff0c\u4f46\u5728\u957f\u7a0b\u573a\u666f\u4e2d\u9762\u4e34\u6311\u6218\uff0c\u8868\u73b0\u4e3a\u663e\u8457\u7684\u6027\u80fd\u4e0b\u964d\uff08\u89c1\u56fe2(a)\u548c2(b)\uff09\u3002\u6b64\u5916\uff0c\u968f\u7740\u9884\u6d4b\u957f\u5ea6\u7684\u589e\u52a0\uff0c\u4e00\u4e9b\u6a21\u578b\u4f1a\u906d\u53d7\u4e25\u91cd\u7684\u8ba1\u7b97\u6548\u7387\u95ee\u9898\uff08\u8be6\u60c5\u8bf7\u53c2\u89c1\u8bba\u6587\uff09\u3002<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image aligncenter size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1107\" height=\"652\" src=\"https:\/\/newed.any0.dpdns.org\/en-us\/research\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/probts-2.png\" alt=\"ProbTS - forecasting scatter charts\" class=\"wp-image-1073661\" srcset=\"https:\/\/newed.any0.dpdns.org\/en-us\/research\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/probts-2.png 1107w, https:\/\/newed.any0.dpdns.org\/en-us\/research\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/probts-2-300x177.png 300w, https:\/\/newed.any0.dpdns.org\/en-us\/research\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/probts-2-1024x603.png 1024w, https:\/\/newed.any0.dpdns.org\/en-us\/research\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/probts-2-768x452.png 768w, https:\/\/newed.any0.dpdns.org\/en-us\/research\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/probts-2-240x141.png 240w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1107px) 100vw, 1107px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">\u56fe2\uff1a\u4f7f\u7528 ProbTS \u5bf9\u7ecf\u5178\u65f6\u95f4\u5e8f\u5217\u6a21\u578b\u8fdb\u884c\u57fa\u51c6\u8bc4\u6d4b<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>\u8fd9\u4e9b\u89c2\u5bdf\u7ed3\u679c\u8868\u660e\uff0c\u5f53\u524d\u5df2\u6709\u7684\u9884\u6d4b\u6a21\u578b\u4e2d\u4ecd\u7136\u7f3a\u4e4f\u9002\u5408\u77ed\u7a0b\u9884\u6d4b\u7684\u6709\u6548\u67b6\u6784\u8bbe\u8ba1\uff1b\u53e6\u5916\u523b\u753b\u590d\u6742\u6570\u636e\u5206\u5e03\u7684\u80fd\u529b\u5bf9\u4e8e\u8fd9\u4e9b\u9884\u6d4b\u6a21\u578b\u7684\u80fd\u529b\u800c\u8a00\u53ca\u5176\u91cd\u8981\u3002\u540c\u65f6\uff0c\u76ee\u524d\u7684\u957f\u7a0b\u5206\u5e03\u9884\u6d4b\u5728\u6027\u80fd\u548c\u6548\u7387\u65b9\u9762\u90fd\u9762\u4e34\u7740\u91cd\u5927\u6311\u6218\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u968f\u540e\uff0c\u7814\u7a76\u5458\u4eec\u5728\u5404\u79cd\u9884\u6d4b\u573a\u666f\u4e2d\u6bd4\u8f83\u4e86\u81ea\u56de\u5f52\uff08AR\uff09\u548c\u975e\u81ea\u56de\u5f52\uff08NAR\uff09\u89e3\u7801\u65b9\u6848\uff0c\u4ee5\u7a81\u51fa\u5b83\u4eec\u5728\u9884\u6d4b\u957f\u5ea6\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u9762\u5bf9\u4e0d\u540c\u8d8b\u52bf\u6027\u548c\u5468\u671f\u6027\u65f6\u5e8f\u6570\u636e\u65b9\u9762\u7684\u4f18\u52bf\u4e0e\u52a3\u52bf\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image aligncenter size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1344\" height=\"859\" src=\"https:\/\/newed.any0.dpdns.org\/en-us\/research\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/probts-3.png\" alt=\"ProbTS - CRPS scatter charts\" class=\"wp-image-1073664\" srcset=\"https:\/\/newed.any0.dpdns.org\/en-us\/research\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/probts-3.png 1344w, https:\/\/newed.any0.dpdns.org\/en-us\/research\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/probts-3-300x192.png 300w, https:\/\/newed.any0.dpdns.org\/en-us\/research\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/probts-3-1024x654.png 1024w, https:\/\/newed.any0.dpdns.org\/en-us\/research\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/probts-3-768x491.png 768w, https:\/\/newed.any0.dpdns.org\/en-us\/research\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/probts-3-240x153.png 240w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1344px) 100vw, 1344px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">\u56fe3\uff1a\u4f7f\u7528 ProbTS \u6bd4\u8f83\u81ea\u56de\u5f52\u548c\u975e\u81ea\u56de\u5f52\u89e3\u7801\u65b9\u6848<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>\u7814\u7a76\u5458\u4eec\u53d1\u73b0\uff0c\u76ee\u524d\u51e0\u4e4e\u6240\u6709\u7684\u957f\u7a0b\u70b9\u9884\u6d4b\u6a21\u578b\u90fd\u5728\u4f7f\u7528\u975e\u81ea\u56de\u5f52\u89e3\u7801\u65b9\u6848\u8fdb\u884c\u591a\u6b65\u9884\u6d4b\u8f93\u51fa\uff0c\u800c\u6982\u7387\u9884\u6d4b\u6a21\u578b\u5219\u66f4\u5e73\u8861\u5730\u4f7f\u7528\u81ea\u56de\u5f52\u548c\u975e\u81ea\u56de\u5f52\u65b9\u6848\u3002\u4ece\u6570\u636e\u7279\u6027\u89c6\u89d2\u51fa\u53d1\uff0c\u4e24\u79cd\u65b9\u6848\u7684\u5dee\u5f02\u53ef\u80fd\u6e90\u4e8e\uff1a<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>\u9884\u6d4b\u957f\u5ea6\u5f71\u54cd<\/strong>\uff1a\u56fe3(a)\u663e\u793a\uff0c\u968f\u7740\u9884\u6d4b\u957f\u5ea6\u7684\u589e\u52a0\uff0cAR \u89e3\u7801\u4e0e NAR \u65b9\u6cd5\u76f8\u6bd4\u8868\u73b0\u51fa\u66f4\u5927\u7684\u6027\u80fd\u5dee\u8ddd\uff0c\u8868\u660e AR \u53ef\u80fd\u53d7\u5230\u9519\u8bef\u7d2f\u79ef\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\u3002<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>\u8d8b\u52bf\u6027\u5f3a\u5ea6\u5f71\u54cd<\/strong>\uff1a\u56fe3(b)\u5c06\u6027\u80fd\u5dee\u8ddd\u4e0e\u8d8b\u52bf\u6027\u7684\u5f3a\u5ea6\u8054\u7cfb\u8d77\u6765\uff0c\u8868\u660e\u5f3a\u70c8\u7684\u8d8b\u52bf\u6548\u5e94\u53ef\u80fd\u5bfc\u81f4 NAR \u548c AR \u6a21\u578b\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u663e\u8457\u6027\u80fd\u5dee\u5f02\u3002\u5f53\u7136\u4e5f\u5b58\u5728\u4f8b\u5916\u60c5\u51b5\uff0c\u5373\u4f7f\u8d8b\u52bf\u6027\u5f3a\uff0c\u57fa\u4e8e AR \u7684\u6a21\u578b\u4e5f\u672a\u5fc5\u51fa\u73b0\u5927\u5e45\u5ea6\u6027\u80fd\u4e0b\u964d\u3002<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>\u5468\u671f\u6027\u5f3a\u5ea6\u5f71\u54cd<\/strong>\uff1a\u56fe3(c)\u901a\u8fc7\u5f15\u5165\u5468\u671f\u6027\u5f3a\u5ea6\u4f5c\u4e3a\u53e6\u4e00\u4e2a\u56e0\u7d20\u6765\u89e3\u91ca\u8fd9\u4e9b\u4f8b\u5916\u3002\u4ee4\u4eba\u60ca\u8bb6\u7684\u662f\uff0c\u57fa\u4e8e AR \u7684\u6a21\u578b\u5728\u5177\u6709\u5f3a\u5468\u671f\u6027\u6a21\u5f0f\u7684\u573a\u666f\u4e2d\u8868\u73b0\u66f4\u597d\uff0c\u8fd9\u5f88\u53ef\u80fd\u662f\u7531\u4e8e\u5b83\u4eec\u5728\u8fd9\u79cd\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\u5177\u6709\u66f4\u9ad8\u7684\u53c2\u6570\u6548\u7387\u3002<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>\u8d8b\u52bf\u6027\u548c\u5468\u671f\u6027\u7684\u7efc\u5408\u5f71\u54cd<\/strong>\uff1a\u56fe3(d)\u5c55\u793a\u4e86\u8d8b\u52bf\u6027\u548c\u5468\u671f\u6027\u5bf9\u6027\u80fd\u5dee\u5f02\u7684\u7efc\u5408\u5f71\u54cd\u3002<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>\u57fa\u4e8e\u6b64\uff0c\u7814\u7a76\u5458\u4eec\u6307\u51fa\uff0c\u4e0d\u540c\u7814\u7a76\u5206\u652f\u9009\u62e9 AR \u548c NAR \u89e3\u7801\u65b9\u6848\u4e3b\u8981\u662f\u7531\u5b83\u4eec\u6240\u5173\u6ce8\u7684\u9884\u6d4b\u573a\u666f\u4e2d\u7279\u5b9a\u7684\u6570\u636e\u7279\u6027\u6240\u9a71\u52a8\u7684\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e5f\u89e3\u91ca\u4e86\u5927\u591a\u6570\u957f\u671f\u9884\u6d4b\u6a21\u578b\u5bf9 NAR \u89e3\u7801\u8303\u5f0f\u7684\u504f\u597d\u3002\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u8fd9\u79cd\u5bf9 NAR \u7684\u504f\u597d\u53ef\u80fd\u5ffd\u7565\u4e86 AR \u7684\u4f18\u52bf\uff0c\u7279\u522b\u662f AR \u5728\u5904\u7406\u5f3a\u5468\u671f\u6027\u65b9\u9762\u7684\u6709\u6548\u6027\u3002\u7531\u4e8e NAR \u548c AR \u5404\u81ea\u62e5\u6709\u72ec\u7279\u7684\u4f18\u52bf\uff0c\u672a\u6765\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u53ef\u4ee5\u63a2\u7d22\u4e24\u8005\u7684\u5e73\u8861\u4e4b\u9053\uff0c\u5e76\u6539\u5584\u5b83\u4eec\u7684\u5f31\u70b9\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"\u65f6\u95f4\u5e8f\u5217\u57fa\u7840\u6a21\u578b\u7684\u8bc4\u6d4b\u7ed3\u679c\u4e0e\u5206\u6790\">\u65f6\u95f4\u5e8f\u5217\u57fa\u7840\u6a21\u578b\u7684\u8bc4\u6d4b\u7ed3\u679c\u4e0e\u5206\u6790<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>\u7814\u7a76\u5458\u4eec\u8fd8\u4f7f\u7528 ProbTS \u6846\u67b6\u5c06\u5206\u6790\u6269\u5c55\u5230\u6700\u65b0\u6d8c\u73b0\u7684\u65f6\u95f4\u5e8f\u5217\u57fa\u7840\u6a21\u578b\u4e0a\uff08\u53c2\u89c1\u56fe4\uff09\uff0c\u4e0d\u4ec5\u8bc4\u4f30\u4e86\u8fd9\u4e9b\u6a21\u578b\u5728\u5404\u79cd\u9884\u6d4b\u957f\u5ea6\u5185\u7684\u8868\u73b0\uff0c\u8fd8\u68c0\u9a8c\u4e86\u5b83\u4eec\u7684\u5206\u5e03\u9884\u6d4b\u80fd\u529b\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image aligncenter size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1373\" height=\"415\" src=\"https:\/\/newed.any0.dpdns.org\/en-us\/research\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/probts-4.png\" alt=\"ProbTS - NMAE and CRPS scatter charts\" class=\"wp-image-1073667\" srcset=\"https:\/\/newed.any0.dpdns.org\/en-us\/research\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/probts-4.png 1373w, https:\/\/newed.any0.dpdns.org\/en-us\/research\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/probts-4-300x91.png 300w, https:\/\/newed.any0.dpdns.org\/en-us\/research\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/probts-4-1024x310.png 1024w, https:\/\/newed.any0.dpdns.org\/en-us\/research\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/probts-4-768x232.png 768w, https:\/\/newed.any0.dpdns.org\/en-us\/research\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/probts-4-240x73.png 240w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1373px) 100vw, 1373px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">\u56fe4\uff1a\u4f7f\u7528 ProbTS \u8fdb\u884c\u65f6\u95f4\u5e8f\u5217\u57fa\u7840\u6a21\u578b\u8bc4\u6d4b<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>\u8bc4\u6d4b\u7ed3\u679c\u8868\u660e\uff1a<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>AR \u89e3\u7801\u5728\u6269\u5c55\u9884\u6d4b\u957f\u5ea6\u65f6\u5b58\u5728\u5c40\u9650\u6027<\/strong>\uff08\u56fe4(a)\uff09\uff0c\u8fd9\u53ef\u80fd\u662f\u7531\u4e8e\u65f6\u95f4\u5e8f\u5217\u5177\u6709\u6570\u503c\u8fde\u7eed\u7684\u7279\u6027\uff0c\u4e0e\u8bed\u8a00\u5efa\u6a21\u4e2d AR \u65b9\u6cd5\u64cd\u4f5c\u5728\u79bb\u6563\u7a7a\u95f4\u4e2d\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0d\u540c\uff0cAR \u89e3\u7801\u65b9\u6cd5\u5728\u65f6\u5e8f\u9884\u6d4b\u4e0a\u4f1a\u9047\u5230\u66f4\u52a0\u4e25\u91cd\u7684\u8bef\u5dee\u7d2f\u79ef\u95ee\u9898\u3002<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>AR \u548c NAR \u6a21\u578b\u5728\u77ed\u7a0b\u573a\u666f\u4e2d\u53ef\u4ee5\u63d0\u4f9b\u76f8\u5f53\u7684\u6027\u80fd<\/strong>\uff0c\u6709\u65f6\u57fa\u4e8eAR\u7684\u6a21\u578b\u751a\u81f3\u4f1a\u4f18\u4e8e\u5b83\u4eec\u7684 NAR \u5bf9\u624b\u3002<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>\u5f53\u524d\u7684\u57fa\u7840\u6a21\u578b\u5728\u5206\u5e03\u9884\u6d4b\u65b9\u9762\u652f\u6301\u6709\u9650<\/strong>\uff0c\u901a\u5e38\u4f7f\u7528\u9884\u5b9a\u4e49\u7684\u5206\u5e03\u9884\u6d4b\u51fd\u6570\uff08\u4f8b\u5982\uff1aMOIRAI\uff09\u6216\u5728\u503c\u91cf\u5316\u7a7a\u95f4\u4e2d\u7528\u79bb\u6563\u5206\u5e03\u6765\u8fd1\u4f3c\u5efa\u6a21\uff08\u4f8b\u5982\uff1aChronos\uff09\u3002\u8fd9\u4e00\u70b9\u53ef\u4ee5\u901a\u8fc7\u5176\u4e0e\u7ecf\u5178\u6982\u7387\u6a21\u578b CSDI \u5728\u6bd4\u8f83\u6355\u6349\u590d\u6742\u6570\u636e\u6548\u679c\u65f6\u53d1\u73b0\uff08\u56fe4(b)\uff09<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>\u603b\u800c\u8a00\u4e4b\uff0c\u867d\u7136\u5f53\u524d\u57fa\u4e8e AR \u7684\u57fa\u7840\u6a21\u578b\u5728\u77ed\u7a0b\u573a\u666f\u4e2d\u8868\u73b0\u4f18\u5f02\uff0c\u4f46\u5b83\u4eec\u7684\u6027\u80fd\u5728\u9762\u4e34\u66f4\u957f\u7684\u9884\u6d4b\u957f\u5ea6\u65f6\u663e\u8457\u964d\u4f4e\uff0c\u8fd9\u8868\u660e\u65f6\u95f4\u5e8f\u5217\u6570\u636e\u9884\u6d4b\uff0c\u5c24\u5176\u5728\u957f\u7a0b\u9884\u6d4b\u573a\u666f\u4e2d\uff0c\u9700\u8981\u72ec\u7279\u7684\u5904\u7406\u6765\u4f18\u5316 AR \u89e3\u7801\u3002\u540c\u65f6\uff0c\u4e0a\u8ff0\u7814\u7a76\u518d\u6b21\u8bc1\u660e\u4e86\u51c6\u786e\u523b\u753b\u590d\u6742\u6570\u636e\u5206\u5e03\u7684\u80fd\u529b\u4ecd\u7136\u662f\u65f6\u95f4\u5e8f\u5217\u57fa\u7840\u6a21\u578b\u4e2d\u4e9f\u9700\u63d0\u5347\u7684\u5173\u952e\u9886\u57df\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"\u672a\u6765\u65b9\u5411-\u89c6\u89d2-\u6a21\u578b\u548c\u5de5\u5177\u7684\u4e09\u91cd\u66f4\u65b0\">\u672a\u6765\u65b9\u5411\uff1a\u89c6\u89d2\u3001\u6a21\u578b\u548c\u5de5\u5177\u7684\u4e09\u91cd\u66f4\u65b0<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>\u57fa\u4e8e\u5bf9\u73b0\u6709\u65b9\u6cd5\u7684\u8bc4\u6d4b\u4e0e\u5206\u6790\uff0c\u7814\u7a76\u5458\u4eec\u63d0\u51fa\u4e86\u5728\u65f6\u95f4\u5e8f\u5217\u9884\u6d4b\u6a21\u578b\u9886\u57df\u672a\u6765\u6700\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u82e5\u5e72\u7814\u7a76\u65b9\u5411\uff0c\u5728\u8fd9\u4e9b\u65b9\u5411\u4e0a\u7684\u6df1\u5165\u63a2\u7d22\u5c06\u4f1a\u5bf9\u5404\u4e2a\u884c\u4e1a\u7684\u5173\u952e\u9884\u6d4b\u573a\u666f\u4ea7\u751f\u91cd\u5927\u5f71\u54cd\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u65b9\u54111\uff1a\u91c7\u7528\u5168\u9762\u89c6\u89d2<\/strong>\u3002\u7814\u7a76\u5458\u4eec\u6307\u51fa\uff0c\u5728\u5f00\u53d1\u65b0\u6a21\u578b\u65f6\u6709\u5fc5\u8981\u91c7\u7528\u5168\u9762\u7684\u89c6\u89d2\u5ba1\u89c6\u524d\u8ff0\u7684\u6838\u5fc3\u9884\u6d4b\u9700\u6c42\u3002\u8fd9\u5c06\u5e2e\u52a9\u6211\u4eec\u91cd\u65b0\u601d\u8003\u4e0d\u540c\u6a21\u578b\u7684\u65b9\u6cd5\u9009\u62e9\uff0c\u8fed\u4ee3\u5b83\u4eec\u7684\u4f18\u52bf\u548c\u52a3\u52bf\uff0c\u5e76\u4fc3\u8fdb\u66f4\u591a\u6837\u5316\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u63a2\u7d22\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u65b9\u54112\uff1a\u521b\u5efa\u901a\u7528\u6a21\u578b<\/strong>\u3002ProbTS \u7684\u7814\u7a76\u5f15\u53d1\u4e86\u4e00\u4e2a\u57fa\u672c\u95ee\u9898\uff0c\u5373\u80fd\u5426\u5f00\u53d1\u51fa\u4e00\u4e2a\u6ee1\u8db3\u6240\u6709\u6838\u5fc3\u9884\u6d4b\u9700\u6c42\u7684\u901a\u7528\u6a21\u578b\uff1f\u6216\u8005\u662f\u5426\u5e94\u8be5\u5206\u522b\u5904\u7406\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u9884\u6d4b\u9700\u6c42\uff0c\u4e3a\u6bcf\u79cd\u9700\u6c42\u5f15\u5165\u7279\u5b9a\u6280\u672f\uff1f<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u7814\u7a76\u5458\u4eec\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff0c\u867d\u7136\u5f88\u96be\u7ed9\u51fa\u4e00\u4e2a\u660e\u786e\u7684\u7b54\u6848\uff0c\u4f46\u5f53\u524d\u7684\u53d1\u5c55\u8d8b\u52bf\u53ef\u80fd\u503e\u5411\u4e8e\u521b\u5efa\u4e00\u4e2a\u901a\u7528\u6a21\u578b\u3002\u5728\u8bbe\u8ba1\u8be5\u6a21\u578b\u65f6\uff0c\u9700\u8981\u8003\u8651\u8f93\u5165\u8868\u793a\u3001\u7f16\u7801\u67b6\u6784\u3001\u89e3\u7801\u65b9\u6848\u548c\u5206\u5e03\u4f30\u8ba1\u6a21\u5757\u7b49\u95ee\u9898\u3002\u6b64\u5916\uff0c\u672a\u6765\u8fd8\u9700\u8981\u7814\u7a76\u8be5\u901a\u7528\u6a21\u578b\u5982\u4f55\u5e94\u5bf9\u9ad8\u7ef4\u6570\u636e\u548c\u5608\u6742\u573a\u666f\u4e2d\u7684\u5206\u5e03\u9884\u6d4b\uff08\u7279\u522b\u662f\u5bf9\u4e8e\u957f\u7a0b\u9884\u6d4b\uff09\uff0c\u5e76\u63a2\u7d22\u5982\u4f55\u5229\u7528 AR \u548c NAR \u89e3\u7801\u65b9\u6848\u7684\u4e0d\u540c\u4f18\u52bf\uff0c\u540c\u65f6\u89c4\u907f\u5b83\u4eec\u5404\u81ea\u7684\u5f31\u70b9\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u65b9\u54113\uff1a\u5f00\u53d1\u7814\u7a76\u5de5\u5177<\/strong>\u3002\u672a\u6765\u5e94\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u52a0\u5f3a\u5bf9\u76f8\u5173\u7814\u7a76\u5de5\u5177\u7684\u5f00\u53d1\u3002\u76ee\u524d\u7814\u7a76\u4e2d\u4f7f\u7528\u7684 ProbTS \u6846\u67b6\u5df2\u7ecf\u5f00\u6e90\uff0c\u7814\u7a76\u5458\u4eec\u5e0c\u671b\u901a\u8fc7\u8fd9\u4e00\u6846\u67b6\u5438\u5f15\u5e76\u51dd\u805a\u7814\u7a76\u793e\u533a\u7684\u96c6\u4f53\u529b\u91cf\uff0c\u4ece\u800c\u4fc3\u8fdb\u65f6\u95f4\u5e8f\u5217\u9884\u6d4b\u9886\u57df\u7684\u8fdb\u6b65\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u901a\u8fc7\u89e3\u51b3\u8fd9\u4e9b\u95ee\u9898\uff0c\u5fae\u8f6f\u4e9a\u6d32\u7814\u7a76\u9662\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u5458\u4eec\u5c06\u4e0d\u65ad\u63a2\u7d22\u65f6\u95f4\u5e8f\u5217\u9884\u6d4b\u7814\u7a76\u7684\u8fb9\u754c\uff0c\u81f4\u529b\u4e8e\u7814\u53d1\u51fa\u66f4\u52a0\u7a33\u5065\u3001\u591a\u529f\u80fd\u4e14\u80fd\u591f\u5e94\u5bf9\u5404\u79cd\u5b9e\u9645\u5de5\u4e1a\u9884\u6d4b\u573a\u666f\u548c\u6311\u6218\u7684\u65f6\u95f4\u5e8f\u5217\u6a21\u578b\u3002\u672a\u6765\uff0c\u5b8c\u5584\u7684\u9884\u6d4b\u6a21\u578b\u5c06\u6781\u5927\u6fc0\u53d1\u591a\u4e2a\u884c\u4e1a\u7684\u6f5c\u529b\uff0c\u63a8\u52a8\u8d44\u6e90\u7684\u9ad8\u6548\u5229\u7528\u3001\u4f18\u5316\u51b3\u7b56\u6d41\u7a0b\u4ee5\u53ca\u63d0\u5347\u8fd0\u8425\u6548\u7387\uff0c\u4ece\u800c\u52a0\u901f\u4ea7\u4e1a\u667a\u80fd\u5316\u53d1\u5c55\uff0c\u5e76\u63d0\u5347\u4eba\u4eec\u7684\u751f\u6d3b\u54c1\u8d28\u3002<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\u4f5c\u8005\uff1a\u673a\u5668\u5b66\u4e60\u7ec4 \u7f16\u8005\u6309\uff1a\u5982\u4eca\uff0c\u65f6\u95f4\u5e8f\u5217\u9884\u6d4b\u5728\u5065\u5eb7\u3001\u80fd\u6e90\u3001\u5546\u4e1a\u3001\u6c14\u5019\u7b49\u591a\u4e2a\u884c\u4e1a\u53d1\u6325\u7740\u81f3\u5173\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u4f5c\u7528\u3002\u5b83\u4e0d\u4ec5\u5f71\u54cd\u7740\u76f8\u5173\u8d44\u6e90\u7684\u5206\u914d\u548c\u8c03\u5ea6\uff0c\u8fd8\u5f71\u54cd\u7740\u884c\u4e1a\u7684\u7ba1\u7406\u548c\u8fd0\u8425\u51b3\u7b56\u3002\u4f46\u662f\u73b0\u6709\u7684\u65f6\u95f4\u5e8f\u5217\u9884\u6d4b\u65b9\u6cd5\u901a\u5e38\u7f3a\u4e4f\u5bf9\u57fa\u7840\u9884\u6d4b\u9700\u6c42\u7684\u5168\u9762\u8003\u8651\uff0c\u65e0\u8bba\u662f\u7ecf\u5178\u7684\u65f6\u5e8f\u9884\u6d4b\u6a21\u578b\u8fd8\u662f\u8fd1\u671f\u6d8c\u73b0\u7684\u65f6\u5e8f\u57fa\u7840\u6a21\u578b\uff0c\u90fd\u5b58\u5728\u65b9\u6cd5\u8bbe\u8ba1\u4e0a\u7684\u201c\u504f\u89c1\u201d\u3002 \u4e3a\u6b64\uff0c\u5fae\u8f6f\u4e9a\u6d32\u7814\u7a76\u9662\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u5458\u4eec\u8054\u5408\u9999\u6e2f\u79d1\u6280\u5927\u5b66\uff08\u5e7f\u5dde\uff09\u548c\u6e05\u534e\u5927\u5b66\u7684\u79d1\u7814\u4eba\u5458\u5408\u4f5c\u5f00\u53d1\u4e86 ProbTS \u6846\u67b6\uff0c\u5e0c\u671b\u5bf9\u73b0\u6709\u65f6\u5e8f\u9884\u6d4b\u6a21\u578b\u8fdb\u884c\u7edf\u4e00\u7684\u57fa\u51c6\u8bc4\u6d4b\u3002\u5728 ProbTS \u6846\u67b6\u4e0b\uff0c\u7814\u7a76\u5458\u4eec\u901a\u8fc7\u5728\u70b9\u4f30\u8ba1\/\u5206\u5e03\u4f30\u8ba1\u3001\u957f\u7a0b\/\u77ed\u7a0b\u3001\u81ea\u56de\u5f52\/\u975e\u81ea\u56de\u5f52\u7b49\u591a\u7ef4\u5ea6\u4e0a\u7684\u9884\u6d4b\u6548\u679c\u6bd4\u8f83\uff0c\u63ed\u793a\u4e86\u5404\u6a21\u578b\u5728\u5173\u952e\u65b9\u6cd5\u8bba\u4e0a\u7684\u201c\u6289\u62e9\u201d\u96be\u9898\u548c\u5dee\u5f02\uff0c\u5e76\u5bf9\u5404\u6a21\u578b\u8fdb\u884c\u4e86\u5168\u9762\u7684\u4f18\u52a3\u52bf\u8fa8\u6790\u3002ProbTS \u7684\u5206\u6790\u7ed3\u679c\u53ef\u4ee5\u5e2e\u52a9\u4e1a\u754c\u53cd\u601d\u5f53\u524d\u65f6\u95f4\u5e8f\u5217\u9884\u6d4b\u6a21\u578b\u5728\u5e95\u5c42\u65b9\u6cd5\u8bba\u4e0a\u906d\u9047\u7684\u6311\u6218\uff0c\u66f4\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u662f\u4e3a\u672a\u6765\u9884\u6d4b\u6a21\u578b\u7684\u53d1\u5c55\u68b3\u7406\u51fa\u4e86\u66f4\u52a0\u6e05\u6670\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u65b9\u5411\u3002 \u65f6\u95f4\u5e8f\u5217\u9884\u6d4b\uff08Time-series Forecasting\uff09\u5bf9\u4f17\u591a\u884c\u4e1a\u90fd\u81f3\u5173\u91cd\u8981\uff0c\u5305\u62ec\u5065\u5eb7\u3001\u80fd\u6e90\u3001\u5546\u4e1a\u3001\u6c14\u5019\u7b49\u3002\u5728\u4e0d\u540c\u9884\u6d4b\u957f\u5ea6\u4e0a\u7684\u51c6\u786e\u6027\uff0c\u5bf9\u8fd9\u4e9b\u9886\u57df\u4e2d\u670d\u52a1\u77ed\u671f\u548c\u957f\u671f\u7684\u89c4\u5212\u548c\u51b3\u7b56\u9700\u6c42\u6765\u8bf4\u6781\u5176\u91cd\u8981\u3002\u4f8b\u5982\uff0c\u5728\u75ab\u60c5\u7206\u53d1\u8fd9\u79cd\u516c\u5171\u536b\u751f\u7684\u7d27\u6025\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\uff0c\u9884\u6d4b\u4e00\u5230\u56db\u5468\u5185\u7684\u611f\u67d3\u75c5\u4f8b\u548c\u6b7b\u4ea1\u4eba\u6570\u5bf9\u4e8e\u6709\u6548\u5206\u914d\u533b\u7597\u548c\u793e\u4f1a\u8d44\u6e90\u975e\u5e38\u91cd\u8981\u3002\u5728\u80fd\u6e90\u9886\u57df\uff0c\u51c6\u786e\u9884\u6d4b\u6bcf\u5c0f\u65f6\u3001\u6bcf\u5929\u3001\u6bcf\u5468\u751a\u81f3\u6bcf\u6708\u7684\u7535\u529b\u9700\u6c42\u4e5f\u5bf9\u7535\u7f51\u7ba1\u7406\u548c\u53ef\u518d\u751f\u80fd\u6e90\u8c03\u5ea6\u5341\u5206\u5173\u952e\u3002\u540c\u6837\uff0c\u5728\u7269\u6d41\u884c\u4e1a\uff0c\u51c6\u786e\u9884\u6d4b\u77ed\u671f\u548c\u957f\u671f\u7684\u8d27\u7269\u91cf\u80fd\u6709\u6548\u5e2e\u52a9\u4f01\u4e1a\u5408\u7406\u5b89\u6392\u8fd0\u8f93\u8def\u7ebf\u4ee5\u53ca\u9ad8\u6548\u7ba1\u7406\u4f9b\u5e94\u94fe\u3002 \u9664\u4e86\u6db5\u76d6\u5404\u79cd\u9884\u6d4b\u957f\u5ea6\uff0c\u9762\u5411\u89c4\u5212\u548c\u51b3\u7b56\u7684\u7cbe\u51c6\u9884\u6d4b\u4e0d\u4ec5\u8981\u8003\u8651\u5230\u70b9\u4f30\u8ba1\uff08Point Estimation\uff09\uff0c\u66f4\u8981\u652f\u6301\u5206\u5e03\u4f30\u8ba1\uff08Distribution Estimation\uff09\uff0c\u4ee5\u8861\u91cf\u4f30\u8ba1\u7684\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u3002\u56e0\u4e3a\u671f\u671b\u4e0b\u7684\u9884\u6d4b\u503c\u53ca\u5176\u76f8\u5173\u7684\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u53ef\u4ee5\u4e3a\u968f\u540e\u7684\u89c4\u5212\u548c\u4f18\u5316\u63d0\u4f9b\u4e00\u4e2a\u5168\u9762\u7684\u89c6\u89d2\u6765\u5f15\u5bfc\u66f4\u597d\u7684\u51b3\u7b56\u3002 \u9274\u4e8e\u4e0d\u540c\u9884\u6d4b\u957f\u5ea6\u5bf9\u70b9\u9884\u6d4b\u548c\u5206\u5e03\u9884\u6d4b\u7684\u8feb\u5207\u9700\u6c42\uff0c\u6765\u81ea\u5fae\u8f6f\u4e9a\u6d32\u7814\u7a76\u9662\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u5458\u4eec\u5bf9\u73b0\u6709\u4e0d\u540c\u7814\u7a76\u9886\u57df\u5f00\u53d1\u7684\u6700\u5148\u8fdb\u7684\u6a21\u578b\u8fdb\u884c\u4e86\u56de\u987e\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e9b\u6a21\u578b\u5305\u62ec\uff1a \u7814\u7a76\u5458\u4eec\u53d1\u73b0\uff0c\u5c3d\u7ba1\u76ee\u524d\u7684\u9884\u6d4b\u6a21\u578b\u6709\u7740\u53ef\u89c2\u7684\u8fdb\u5c55\uff0c\u4f46\u73b0\u6709\u7684\u65b9\u6cd5\u901a\u5e38\u7f3a\u4e4f\u5bf9\u57fa\u7840\u9884\u6d4b\u9700\u6c42\u7684\u5168\u9762\u8003\u8651\u3002\u8fd9\u79cd\u5c40\u9650\u6027\u5c06\u5bfc\u81f4\u73b0\u6709\u6a21\u578b\u65b9\u6cd5\u5728\u8bbe\u8ba1\u4e0a\u5b58\u5728\u201c\u504f\u89c1\u201d\uff0c\u800c\u4e14\u8fd9\u4e9b\u6a21\u578b\u80fd\u529b\u5c1a\u672a\u5728\u66f4\u5e7f\u6cdb\u7684\u9884\u6d4b\u573a\u666f\u4e2d\u5f97\u5230\u9a8c\u8bc1\u3002 \u57fa\u4e8e\u6b64\uff0c\u7814\u7a76\u5458\u4eec\u5f00\u53d1\u4e86 ProbTS \u6846\u67b6\u3002ProbTS \u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u7edf\u4e00\u7684\u57fa\u51c6\u8bc4\u6d4b\u6846\u67b6\uff0c\u65e8\u5728\u8bc4\u4f30\u5f53\u524d\u65b9\u6cd5\u5728\u6ee1\u8db3\u57fa\u672c\u9884\u6d4b\u9700\u6c42\u65b9\u9762\u7684\u8868\u73b0\u3002\u7814\u7a76\u5458\u4eec\u901a\u8fc7 ProbTS \u5de5\u5177\uff0c\u4e0d\u4ec5\u5bf9\u9884\u6d4b\u7814\u7a76\u7684\u5173\u952e\u65b9\u6cd5\u8bba\u5dee\u5f02\u8fdb\u884c\u4e86\u63a2\u8ba8\uff0c\u8fd8\u5bf9\u5404\u7c7b\u65f6\u95f4\u5e8f\u5217\u9884\u6d4b\u7684\u7ecf\u5178\u6a21\u578b\u548c\u57fa\u7840\u6a21\u578b\u8fdb\u884c\u4e86\u8bc4\u6d4b\uff0c\u63ed\u793a\u4e86\u73b0\u6709\u65f6\u95f4\u5e8f\u5217\u9884\u6d4b\u7814\u7a76\u4e2d\u5b58\u5728\u7684\u95ee\u9898\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u5404\u6a21\u578b\u7684\u4f18\u52a3\u52bf\u6240\u5728\uff0c\u8fdb\u800c\u5bf9\u8be5\u9886\u57df\u672a\u6765\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u65b9\u5411\u8fdb\u884c\u4e86\u68b3\u7406\u3002 ProbTS: Benchmarking Point and Distributional Forecasting across Diverse Prediction Horizons \u8bba\u6587\u94fe\u63a5\uff1ahttps:\/\/arxiv.org\/abs\/2310.07446v4 (opens in new tab) GitHub\u94fe\u63a5\uff1ahttps:\/\/github.com\/microsoft\/ProbTS (opens in new tab) \u7814\u7a76\u5458\u4eec\u901a\u8fc7 ProbTS \u8fdb\u884c\u7684\u57fa\u51c6\u7814\u7a76\u53d1\u73b0\uff0c\u76ee\u524d\u7684\u65f6\u95f4\u5e8f\u5217\u9884\u6d4b\u5173\u952e\u65b9\u6cd5\u8bba\u5b58\u5728\u4e24\u65b9\u9762\u7684\u5dee\u5f02\u2014\u2014\u70b9\u4f30\u8ba1\u548c\u5206\u5e03\u4f30\u8ba1\u7684\u9884\u6d4b\u8303\u5f0f\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u591a\u6b65\u9884\u6d4b\u7684\u89e3\u7801\u65b9\u6848\u3002 \u70b9\u4f30\u8ba1\u548c\u5206\u5e03\u4f30\u8ba1\u7684\u9884\u6d4b\u8303\u5f0f\uff1a \u591a\u6b65\u9884\u6d4b\u8f93\u51fa\u7684\u89e3\u7801\u65b9\u6848\uff1a \u5728 ProbTS \u6846\u67b6\u4e0b\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u7ed3\u679c\u663e\u793a\uff1a\u9996\u5148\uff0c\u5728\u957f\u7a0b\u53ca\u77ed\u7a0b\u9884\u6d4b\u4e2d\uff0c\u957f\u7a0b\u70b9\u9884\u6d4b\u7684\u65b9\u6cd5\u56e0\u5b9a\u5236\u5316\u7684\u795e\u7ecf\u67b6\u6784\u5728\u957f\u7a0b\u573a\u666f\u4e2d\u8868\u73b0\u51fa\u8272\uff0c\u4f46\u5728\u77ed\u7a0b\u6848\u4f8b\u548c\u590d\u6742\u6570\u636e\u5206\u5e03\u4e2d\u8868\u73b0\u4e0d\u4f73\uff0c\u5e76\u4e14\u56e0\u4e3a\u7f3a\u4e4f\u5bf9\u9884\u6d4b\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u7684\u91cf\u5316\u8bc4\u4f30\uff0c\u5bfc\u81f4\u5176\u4e0e\u6982\u7387\u6a21\u578b\u76f8\u6bd4\u5728\u5e94\u5bf9\u590d\u6742\u6570\u636e\u5206\u5e03\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\u5b58\u5728\u663e\u8457\u7684\u6027\u80fd\u5dee\u8ddd\u3002\u800c\u77ed\u7a0b\u6982\u7387\u9884\u6d4b\u65b9\u6cd5\u4ec5\u5728\u77ed\u7a0b\u5206\u5e03\u9884\u6d4b\u65b9\u9762\u8868\u73b0\u4e13\u4e1a\uff0c\u4f46\u5728\u957f\u7a0b\u9884\u6d4b\u573a\u666f\u4e2d\u5c31\u4f1a\u51fa\u73b0\u6027\u80fd\u4e0b\u964d\u4ee5\u53ca\u8ba1\u7b97\u6548\u7387\u7684\u95ee\u9898\u3002 \u5176\u6b21\uff0c\u9488\u5bf9\u89e3\u7801\u5668\u8bbe\u8ba1\uff0c\u957f\u7a0b\u70b9\u9884\u6d4b\u6a21\u578b\u4e3b\u8981\u91c7\u7528\u975e\u81ea\u56de\u5f52\u89e3\u7801\uff0c\u800c\u5728\u77ed\u7a0b\u6982\u7387\u9884\u6d4b\u6a21\u578b\u8bbe\u8ba1\u4e2d\u5219\u6ca1\u6709\u51fa\u73b0\u8fd9\u79cd\u504f\u5411\u6027\u3002\u5e76\u4e14\uff0c\u5c3d\u7ba1\u81ea\u56de\u5f52\u89e3\u7801\u5728\u957f\u7a0b\u9884\u6d4b\u4e2d\u5bb9\u6613\u53d7\u5230\u8bef\u5dee\u7d2f\u79ef\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\uff0c\u4f46\u5728\u5177\u6709\u5f3a\u5468\u671f\u6027\u6a21\u5f0f\u7684\u573a\u666f\u4e0b\u53ef\u80fd\u8868\u73b0\u66f4\u597d\u3002 \u6700\u540e\uff0c\u5728\u5f53\u524d\u6d8c\u73b0\u7684\u65f6\u95f4\u5e8f\u5217\u57fa\u7840\u6a21\u578b\u4e2d\uff0c\u90e8\u5206\u91c7\u7528\u81ea\u56de\u5f52\u89e3\u7801\u7684\u57fa\u7840\u6a21\u578b\u5728\u957f\u7a0b\u9884\u6d4b\u4e2d\u540c\u6837\u9762\u4e34\u8bef\u5dee\u7d2f\u79ef\u7684\u6311\u6218\uff0c\u4e14\u5c1a\u672a\u6709\u8f83\u597d\u7684\u5e94\u5bf9\u63aa\u65bd\u3002\u540c\u65f6\uff0c\u5f53\u524d\u57fa\u7840\u6a21\u578b\u5bf9\u5206\u5e03\u9884\u6d4b\u7684\u652f\u6301\u6709\u9650\uff0c\u7a81\u663e\u4e86\u63d0\u5347\u590d\u6742\u6570\u636e\u5206\u5e03\u5efa\u6a21\u80fd\u529b\u7684\u9700\u6c42\u3002 \u7814\u7a76\u5458\u4eec\u4f7f\u7528 ProbTS \u6846\u67b6\u5bf9\u5e7f\u6cdb\u7684\u9884\u6d4b\u573a\u666f\u4e2d\u7684\u5404\u79cd\u7ecf\u5178\u65f6\u95f4\u5e8f\u5217\u6a21\u578b\u8fdb\u884c\u4e86\u57fa\u51c6\u8bc4\u6d4b\uff0c\u6db5\u76d6\u77ed\u7a0b\u548c\u957f\u7a0b\u9884\u6d4b\u3002\u5177\u4f53\u8bc4\u6d4b\u6307\u6807\u5305\u62ec\u70b9\u9884\u6d4b\u6307\u6807 NMAE 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